Another Climate Change Story..

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.. and the facepalm that goes with it.

CNN published this story and reports what scientists believe is a serious problem:

The study, which was released Monday, says sea levels may rise much faster than previously estimated due to the accelerating melting of ice sheets in both Greenland and Antarctica.

The international researchers predict that in the worst case scenario under which global temperatures increase by 5 degrees Celsius (9 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100, sea levels could rise by more than two meters (6.6 feet) in the same period — double the upper limit outlined by the UN climate science panel’s last major report.

Such a situation would be “catastrophic,” the authors of the study warn.
“It really is pretty grim,” lead author Jonathan Bamber, a Professor of Physical Geography at the University of Bristol told CNN. “Two meters is not a good scenario.”

The study cited in the article says this:

Advances since the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (7) include improved process understanding and representation in deterministic ice sheet models (8, 9), probabilistic projections calibrated against these models and the observational record (10), and new semiempirical models, based on the historical relationship between temperature and sea-level changes. Each of these approaches has limitations that stem from factors including poorly understood processes, poorly constrained boundary conditions, and a short (∼25 y) satellite observation record of ice sheets that does not capture the time scales of internal variability in the ice sheet climate system. As a consequence, it is unclear to what extent recent observed ice sheet changes (11) are a result of internal variability (ice sheet weather) or external forcing (ice sheet climate).

In essence, Sea-Level Rise of 2 meters is a “possible” scenario that, if it happens, would be of great consequence in the 21st century.  The news article is about the extreme future scenario and the scientists are saying not to discount it because it’s within the upper boundaries of model predictions.

This is what CNN wrote about:  A climate model predicts that the worst possible scenario is REALLY, and I mean REALLY REALLY bad and we all need to take notice.  It doesn’t report the other outcomes of what may happen.  In fact, scientists didn’t seem to report on those either, because the report itself is based on what happens in the computer programmed Earth.

In case anyone needs to understand how this works, all one must realize is that all doomsday predictions are based on computer models.  To make it science, they run the models hundreds of times, average all the outputs and say, “This is how the climate works. Ignore the observations.” Not a single computer model has ever produced with any  accuracy the climate system as it exists today. That hasn’t stopped climate scientists.

Even worse, just read how they came to their conclusions.  If you like workshops where you can produce a scientific paper in two days using outputs of computer models and conclude, “Oh yeah, this is great stuff and we need to tell everyone just how bad it could be!” – you might be a climate scientist.

3 thoughts on “Another Climate Change Story..

  1. They note: “and a short (∼25 y) satellite observation record of ice sheets that does not capture the time scales of internal variability in the ice sheet climate system“. In other words, they took a snapshot in time, and based their future predictions entirely on the observations made during that snapshot. Their fellow travelers, the political Left, did the same thing by looking at the results of the 2008 election (and that election only), and assumed they would be in power for generations. It has not turned out the way they thought it would.

    Liked by 2 people

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